Idea · carried by 1 source
Winners Look Invulnerable Until They Don't
A recurring pattern in technology: dominant companies appear unassailable right up to the moment they're not. IBM, Microsoft, Intel, Nokia — all looked invulnerable, all fell, and in every case, *how* and *why* they would fall was not predictable at the time. But they all did.
Where it comes from
Benedict Evans, in his talk on 10-year futures (consume/highlights/10-year-futures-vs-whats-happening-now), uses this pattern to argue that today's GAFA giants (Google, Apple, Facebook, Amazon) will eventually face the same fate — even if we can't currently see how. > “Companies that win always look invulnerable until they don't. ... IBM looked invulnerable, then Microsoft, Intel, Nokia did, then the Internet giants of the last bubble. Now Google, Apple, Facebook, Amazon look invulnerable — but all previous ones fell, and it was not predictable at the time how or why they would fall, but they all did.” (~4:33)
How it works
- They are “super-evolved organisms” — massively greater scale, controlled by founders, all having read the disruption playbook.
- But even Amazon, at 600,000 employees, still has a long way to go in overall retail.
- “Something will always come along afterwards — which is really what we try to work out now.” (~5:14)
The unpredictability of how incumbents fall is the point. If you could predict it, they would defend against it. The new S-curves — autonomy, mixed reality, crypto, AI — are the candidates for what will change everything next, just as all previous generations were changed.