Idea · carried by 1 source
S-Curves Aren't Smooth
The S-curve looks clean on a chart, but the lived reality at the beginning is ugly: three distinct, messy phases before any explosion happens. The technology doesn't work, then it sort of works but nobody wants it, and only then does it finally take off.
Where it comes from
Benedict Evans explains this in his talk on 10-year futures (consume/highlights/10-year-futures-vs-whats-happening-now), using the iPhone and iPod as archetypal examples. > “S-curves are never actually smooth. ... You have three phases at the beginning: the period where the tech doesn't quite work at all but you think it will, then you have the period where you've got it sort of working but you don't have product market fit and you're still iterating on the product, and then that's the point that it explodes.” (~5:29)
The most important strategic skill is recognizing which phase a given technology is actually in, because the actions required — fundamental research, product iteration, or scaling — are completely different.